Last month I did a state-by-state analysis of the Presidential race using data gathered from Pollster.com.  Since we’re expecting Vice-Presidential picks this week, including keeping an eye on Evan Bayh, here’s a breakdown on where the candidates are.  Remember, if there is less than a 3-point difference between the candidates, I consider it a tie.

John McCain

• Alabama, 49-36.
• Arizona, 50-40.
• Arkansas, 47-40.
• Georgia, 48-42-2 (Barr).
• Idaho, 53-37.
• Kansas, 49-37.
• Louisiana, 54-34.
• Mississippi, 51-41.
• Nebraska, 55-45.
• Oklahoma, 50-32.
• South Carolina, 47-37.
• South Dakota, 45-40.
• Tennessee, 50-35.
• Texas, 47-41.
• Utah, 60-30.
• West Virgina, 45-37.
• Wyoming, 53-40.

Barack Obama

• California, 50-37.
• Connecticut, 55-33.
• Delaware, 50-41.
• Hawaii, 61-31.
• Illinois, 52-35.
• Iowa, 47-41.
• Maine, 49-41.
• Maryland, 55-30.
• Massachusetts, 54-35.
• Michigan, 48-43.
• Minnesota, 50-38.
• New Hampshire, 48-42.
• New Jersey, 50-37.
• New Mexico, 49-41.
• New York, 53-32.
• Oregon, 49-42.
• Pennsylvania, 50-40.
• Rhode Island, 53-30.
• Vermont, 60-33.
• Washington, 50-38.
• Wisconsin, 51-38.

Toss-Up

• Alaska, 44-42 (Obama)
• Colorado, 48-45 (Obama)
• Florida, 46-45 (McCain)
• Indiana, 43-42 (McCain)
• Missouri, 47-44 (McCain)
• Montana, 47-45 (Obama)
• Nevada, 45-42 (McCain)
• North Carolina, 48-45-2 (McCain)
• North Dakota, 45-42 (McCain)
• Ohio, 46-43 (Obama)
• Virginia, 47-45 (Obama)

Applying the math to the electoral map, here’s the breakdown.

• Obama - 264 Electoral votes, down 8 from the last survey.
• McCain - 154 Electoral votes, up 20 from the last survey.
• Undecided - 120 Electoral votes.

The biggest move was Georgia, although slightly from the undecided column to the McCain side.  Georgia  has 15 electoral votes.  However, McCain is still defending more traditional red states than Obama is blue.  If we did a little speculation and gave the states to the candidate who was ahead,  Obama wins 312 electoral votes to McCain’s 226.  But don’t get too excited or distressed, November is a long way away.

More Hoosiers were out of work in July as the state’s unemployment rate went from 5.9 to 6.3 percent. And while higher than the national average of 5.7 percent, Indiana is still doing better than it’s neighbors; Illinois - 7.3 percent, Kentucky - 6.7 percent, Ohio - 7.2 percent, Michigan - 8.5 percent.

What’s more interesting than the statistics is where the jobs are being lost and what kinds. Indiana has taken the biggest hit in its auto manufacturing/transportation sector losing more than 21,000 jobs since July of last year. And any city or town that relies on heavy industry is also taking a hit. Look at these numbers for July 2007 - July 2008.

• Ft. Wayne - 1,900 jobs lost.
• Terre Haute - 1,200 jobs lost.
• Elkhart-Goshen - 4,700 jobs lost.
• South Bend - 2,600 jobs lost.
• Kokomo - 1,600 jobs lost.
• Anderson - 1,500 jobs lost.

Indiana did see some job gains since July of last year. 5,600 jobs were created in the Indianapolis-Carmel area. 2,100 jobs were created in Gary. And 2,300 jobs were created in Lafayette.

Putting the best face on bad picture, the Daniels administration says while the numbers aren’t good, they show Indiana is holding up a lot better than other places. And they also point to companies committing to create 12,000 jobs since January 1.

The Jill Long Thompson campaign immediately pounced on the economic bad news. In a statement Thompson said, “This is more devastating news for Indiana’s working families and it further illustrates the need for a new direction and new leadership in this state. Month after month Indiana continues to lose good-paying jobs while this administration does little, if anything, to stop it. I firmly believe that with the right leadership and right priorities we can turn this economy around. I am running for Governor because I want to work to rebuild this economy and make Indiana more competitive by overhauling our tax structure, reforming our health care and education systems and working to bring economic opportunity and good-paying jobs back to every Indiana community.”

Thompson has advocated a three-tier system for economic development using tax credits and incentives to create “good-paying” jobs.  What she has yet to explain is how she would replace jobs in the transportation sector when sales have plummeted because of $4 a gallon gas.  In addition, out of Indiana’s  14 metropolitan regions, only one has seen a double-digit increase in unemployment, that’s Anderson at 11 percent with a 4,800 job loss since January 2005.  The next worse is Kokomo that’s experienced at 6.1 percent job loss since January 2005 at 2,900 jobs.  Seven cities have seen increases in jobs ranging from 8.4 percent in Columbus to 1.5 percent in Evansville.  The other remaining cities and towns have all had single-digit increases in unemployment ranging from 0.3 percent to 2.4 percent.

Since the Daniels administration ran in 2004 on job creation, it is fair criticism to attack their record.  However when Democrats simply cite the total job loss number, forgetting that jobs are also created in that same time period they deserve chastising for not being intellectually honest.  The truth of the matter is that Indiana, like everywhere else in the Mid-West is in bad shape.  The good news is, it could be a lot worse.  If you don’t believe me, get in your, get on the interstate and drive a couple hours.

If you’ve tried to get a hold of someone at the Mayor’s Action Center, you probably have had an issue or two.  Wait times have been ridiculously long, if you get to someone at all.  The Ballard administration is looking at privatizing the MAC line.  A decision hasn’t been made yet, but they have received requests for proposals.I’m going to go one step further.  Not only should the call center be privatized, but outsourced to India.  As a taxpayer I could care less who is on the other side of the line as long as they do two things.

1. Take my complaint and get it to where it needs to be.
2. Save me money.

If they can accomplish that, who cares if the call center is in Indianapolis, somewhere in Indiana or in India.   The job of government is not to employ people, but to provide services at the most efficient costs.  As long as it does that, who cares who answers the phone.

Reaction to the Mayor’s budget address was predictable.  Republicans called it turning around the ship of state and putting things in the right direction.  Democrats called it voodoo economics that short changes public safety.  Neighborhood groups like the Marion County Neighborhood Association took a wait and see approach.  And the township assessors promised to fight consolidation to the end.

However, one thing that did surprise me was my conversation with City-County Councilor Jackie Nytes.  Nytes said the tax increase that Democrats passed last year put the city on much more solid financial footing.  Nytes said if they hadn’t done that, the Mayor’s budget would be in lot worse shape.  She said the Indiana legislature has tied the hands of cities and towns, making it more difficult for them to raise revenue and fund core services.

Nytes also dismissed Republican criticism that former Council and Administration left them with unfunded obligations.  She said anyone who had been paying attention would have known the city was spending down fund balances because the legislature was limiting local governments.

Nytes said she understands that this is the way the world works, but it would be nice for the Mayor to say “thank you” to Democrats for making it possible to fund his budget.   She said Ballard is in the driver’s seat, but they were the ones who put the gas in the car.

Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard will announce tonight that the city’s budget is balanced. The Ballard administration announced earlier this year that the city faced a $26 million shortfall. In a Sunday afternoon briefing, City Comptroller Dave Reynolds said they closed the shortfall and managed to have $4.8 million left over.

The overall budget was $1.13 billion dollars which was $108 million less than last year. However, $99 million of that was taken off the rolls when the State assumed the child welfare levy. However the city still faced a revenue shortage.

Administration officials say the closed the budget gap by having most agencies cut their budgets by 5-percent from last year’s appropriations for an $8.5 million savings.  They also took money from the fund balances in the sewer  and storm water management funds.  They consolidated the functions of the township assessors into the county assessor; $3 million in savings assuming the consolidation referendum passes this November. They also reduced the parks budget by $3 million ($500,000 of that is arts funding), the Courts budget by $2.3 million (although there will be an additional court brought on-line) and the Sheriff’s budget by $5.5 million.

When asked about the cut to the Sheriff’s department, Reynolds said he hoped MCSD would be able to find efficiencies, particularly at the jail. The current jail costs taxpayers $100 per day per inmate, while the private run jail costs $42 per day per inmate. Reynolds said he was not expecting the Sheriff to reduce his costs to that of private jail, but hoped Frank Anderson would look for efficiencies.

Reynolds also sad the Parks Department had been operating at a $4 million deficit and cuts were necessary to keep them fiscally sound.

Ballard Chief of Staff Paul Okeson said the city has to live within its means and for too long had been living off credit and could not afford to do that anymore.

Despite the cuts, there were increases in the city budget. There was nearly a $20 million increase in police and fire. That money will go for union-negotiated raises, new vehicles, pension obligations and to hire more than three dozen public safety officers to handle police administrative duties which in turn frees up more officers on the street. There also a $5 million increase in the Department of Metropolitan Development to deal with neighborhood infrastructure and abandoned housing. There was $4.4 million increase for roads and transportation.

There was also a $232,000 increase in the Mayor’s budget. Okeson says that increase was a result of putting employees who work for the Mayor under the Mayor’s budget. In the past some employees had been funded by other departments. Okeson says it goes to the Mayor’s objective of transparency in budgeting.

While the city’s short-term financial crisis may have been avoided, Reynolds said the city still has long-term financial problems. Expenditures are still expected to exceed revenues and the city will fall short of having a recommended 10-percent savings in its fund balance. Reynolds says the city will have to address those issues and one way to stop that would be by adopting the Kernan-Shepard government consolidation plan.

The Mayor will address the full Council tonight at 7 p.m. The first budget committee hearing is expected tomorrow. A public hearing will take place on September 8 and a final vote on September 22. Copies of the budget proposal will be available on the city’s website.

Your thoughts?

I’m doing some research this morning in preparation for tomorrow night’s Mayoral Budget address.  I’ve already gone over some arts funding figures, parks department numbers, and the possible privatization of the Mayor’s Action Center.

But what’s really interesting is when you start moving into specific areas and certain line items. Take this one for example.  A review of contracts between the Marion County Sheriff’s Department and Counsel to the Sheriff, Kevin Murry, has revealed some interesting information,

By my count, Murray has five separate contracts with MCSD and they are all two-year deals.  Here’s what they are for and how they cost.

• General Counsel Services - $83,442.45 annual retainer.
• Pension Board Services - Up to $60,000 annually.
• Jail Overcrowding - Up to $100,000 annually.
• Labor & Employment - Up to $75,000 annually for services provided to the Sheriff’s Department.
• Labor & Employment - Up to $100,000 annually for services provided to the Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department.

Making a couple assumptions, Murray was potentially getting paid $836,884.90.  Of course you would have to take into account Frank Anderson no longer controls IMPD as of March of this year and it’s faulty to assume Murray would bill MCSD every last possible dime, but you have